TY - JOUR

T1 - Atrial ectopy and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as predictors of atrial fibrillation

T2 - a population-based cohort study

AU - Kumarathurai, Preman

AU - Mouridsen, Mette R

AU - Mattsson, Nick

AU - Larsen, Bjørn Strøier

AU - Nielsen, Olav W

AU - Gerds, Thomas A

AU - Sajadieh, Ahmad

PY - 2017/3

Y1 - 2017/3

N2 - Aims: The risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) can be estimated by clinical parameters in the Framingham AF risk model. Elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and increased rate of premature atrial contractions (PACs) have been shown to be associated with AF, but the additive value of both of these biomarkers in the Framingham AF risk model has not been fully examined.Methods and results: A total of 646 subjects from the Copenhagen Holter Study (mean age 64.4 ± 6.8 years, 41.6% women) with no history of prior AF, stroke or cardiovascular disease were followed for the diagnosis of incident AF or death (median follow-up time 14.4 years). Median NT-proBNP was 6.7 pmol/L (IQR: 3.6-13.5), median PAC count was 1.4 beats/h (IQR: 0.6-4.5), 71 (11.0%) subjects developed AF, and 244 (37.8%) died. Multiple Cox regression including Framingham AF risk score, log-transformed NT-proBNP, and log-transformed PAC showed a significant increase in AF hazard risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.85, P = 0.002; HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.09-1.39, P = 0.001]. The addition of PAC to the Framingham AF risk model significantly improved the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC 65.6 vs. 72.6; P = 0.008), while the addition of NT-proBNP did not.Conclusion: Atrial fibrillation risk discrimination was significantly improved by the addition of PAC to the Framingham AF risk model, but not by the addition of NT-proBNP.

AB - Aims: The risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) can be estimated by clinical parameters in the Framingham AF risk model. Elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and increased rate of premature atrial contractions (PACs) have been shown to be associated with AF, but the additive value of both of these biomarkers in the Framingham AF risk model has not been fully examined.Methods and results: A total of 646 subjects from the Copenhagen Holter Study (mean age 64.4 ± 6.8 years, 41.6% women) with no history of prior AF, stroke or cardiovascular disease were followed for the diagnosis of incident AF or death (median follow-up time 14.4 years). Median NT-proBNP was 6.7 pmol/L (IQR: 3.6-13.5), median PAC count was 1.4 beats/h (IQR: 0.6-4.5), 71 (11.0%) subjects developed AF, and 244 (37.8%) died. Multiple Cox regression including Framingham AF risk score, log-transformed NT-proBNP, and log-transformed PAC showed a significant increase in AF hazard risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.85, P = 0.002; HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.09-1.39, P = 0.001]. The addition of PAC to the Framingham AF risk model significantly improved the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC 65.6 vs. 72.6; P = 0.008), while the addition of NT-proBNP did not.Conclusion: Atrial fibrillation risk discrimination was significantly improved by the addition of PAC to the Framingham AF risk model, but not by the addition of NT-proBNP.

KW - Journal Article

U2 - 10.1093/europace/euw017

DO - 10.1093/europace/euw017

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 27194537

VL - 19

SP - 364

EP - 370

JO - Europace

JF - Europace

SN - 1099-5129

IS - 3

ER -